Scientists Fear the Gulf Stream May Collapse by 2025

By: James Dorman | Published: Aug 23, 2024

As the planet warms and glaciers melt, seismic changes in the Earth’s climate plunge the planet into a new ice age. If this sounds like the plot of a science fiction disaster movie, that’s because it is.

But scientists are concerned about the very real possibility of melting ice shutting down the Gulf Stream, the system of currents that help warm the northern hemisphere.

What Is the Gulf Stream?

The Gulf Stream is part of a wider system of currents known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

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Illustration of the Nordic seas with schematic arrow indicating current circulation.

Source: R. Curry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution/Wikimedia Commons

These currents are basically a global conveyor belt, moving warm water near the ocean’s surface from the tropics northwards to the northern hemisphere. It then goes through a cycle that helps warm the northern hemisphere.

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How the AMOC Warms the Planet

When this warm water from the tropics reaches the North Atlantic around Europe, the UK and the east coast of the U.S., it releases the heat and freezes. 

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Photograph under the surface of blue water with lots of round bubbles in the water.

Source: J K/Unsplash

As oceanic ice ice forms, it leaves behind salt in the ocean waters. A large amount of salt in the water means it becomes denser and sinks. It’s then carried southwards in the ocean depths. Eventually, the water gets pulled back up toward the surface and heats up again in what’s known as upwelling, completing a neat little cycle. 

What Might Its Collapse Mean?

Scientists believe that the AMOC is so vital in bringing warmth to the northern hemisphere that without it, huge areas of Europe would plummet into a deep freeze.

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Mountain tops covered in snow against a blue sky covered in white clouds.

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Without the heat from these currents, average temperatures in the northern hemisphere could drop by several degrees. North America and parts of Asia and Europe would all be impacted.

Dangerously Close to Reality

The collapse of the Gulf Stream would also have knock-on effects all around the world. This cataclysmic doomsday scenario might be closer to a very real future possibility than we’d like to admit.

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Heat map image of the globe using shades of red, orange and blue to show sea water potential temperatures.

Source: European Union, Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service/Wikimedia Commons

Scientists warn that a sudden shutdown of Atlantic Ocean currents is looking more likely than ever as recent studies identify a tipping point to disaster looming in the not-too-distant future.

Studying This Potential Collapse

A study from a Dutch university examined the potential collapse of currents like the Gulf Stream in great detail, running computer models of possible outcomes.

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The study’s lead author Rene van Westen, an oceanographer and climate scientist, says, “We are moving closer to the collapse, but we’re not sure how much closer.” 

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The Million Dollar Question

Knowing when the Gulf Stream might collapse and devastating global weather events like the ones predicted might occur is the “million dollar question”, according to van Westen.

Brown hourglass with blue sand inside standing on a sight angle on a stone beach.

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He states: “We are moving closer (to the collapse), but we’re not sure how much closer,” adding that when the planet reaches this “tipping point” also depends on the rate of climate change we as a species are introducing.

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Prior Studies

One thing that seems certain, though, is that the AMOC is indeed slowing down, as prior studies have shown.

The sun hangs low over a large expanse of ocean with large chunks of ice in the water.

Source: William Bossen/Unsplash

As more ice melts off the coast of Greenland due to climate change, more freshwater flows into the North Atlantic and slows the cycle the AMOC carries out. Previous thinking had it that an abrupt shutdown of the AMOC could be on the horizon in the next few centuries.

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Projections of Future Slowdown

This new study paints a far bleaker picture, with forecasts suggesting that a shutdown of the AMOC could be mere decades away.

Close-up, side-on view of a partially closed laptop in a dark room. The screen is angled at roughly 45 degrees; the glow of the screen illuminates the keyboard

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The Dutch research team designed a computer modeling simulation that they used to measure what a sudden weakening of the AMOC might look like and the impact it could potentially have. 

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The Results of the Simulation

They modeled the introduction of freshwater into the Atlantic to project the impact of melting ice in Greenland. The simulation showed that ocean circulation strength gradually decreased until it reached a tipping point where it collapsed entirely.

A person wearing rubber gloves looks at a computer screen displaying a map of the world, with red circles on different areas indicating “hot spots”.

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The model projected this would lead to the European climate cooling by around 1.8°F (1°C) per decade, with some regions experiencing over 5.4°F (3°C) cooling per decade. This is a significantly more rapid change than today’s global warming of about 0.36 F (0.2 C) per decade.

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Global Consequences

The impact wouldn’t be limited to countries in the northern hemisphere plummeting into a deep freeze. The effects would extend Arctic ice further south, and increase temperatures even more in the southern hemisphere.

Illustrated map of the world with labels illustrating the cascade effects around the world of the weakening of the AMOC.

Source: Scott Graham/Unsplash

This would have knock-on effects like changing global rainfall patterns and disrupting rainforests, with some scientists believing these massive climate changes could lead to catastrophic food and water shortages.

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A Potential Catastrophe

This study and ones like it make for troubling reading. The only positive point seems to be that such a catastrophic change isn’t imminent and may be decades away or longer.

Snow-covered mountains at night. A full moon, slightly orange-tinged and partially obscured with cloud, hangs almost ominous in the air.

Source: Jonathan Wheeler/Unsplash

But the AMOC is rapidly approaching a tipping point. This is a stark reminder, if one were needed, that the potential consequences of our planet’s changing climate could be catastrophic. It’s important we take steps to slow or reverse man-made changes to the planet to prevent humanity from plunging into a new ice age.

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