Over Half of U.S. Major Cities Can Expect Population Decline by the Year 2100

Almost half of the 30,000 U.S. cities are projected to experience population loss by that year. Population distribution is also likely to change, with more people going to suburban and rural areas and leaving urban centers. Let’s look at this trend.

Thanks to the baby boomer generation getting older and leading a rise in the retirement population, the number of citizens over the age of 65 will rise by 25% by 2040. This aging population will likely move away from busy cities to quieter, more affordable suburban areas. Per the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP), 63% of retirees look for affordability when choosing their residence, while 58% seek health care accessibility.

A widening gap between job availability and income needs is also driving residents to look for opportunities in places with better employment prospects. If cities like San Francisco and New York can’t offer good jobs for residents, they will continue to suffer from population decline, which they already experienced between 2020 and 2022 (5.3% and 7.5% decrease, respectively).

Various reasons are expected to contribute to population loss in these cities. The top cause is increasing poverty, lack of jobs and unemployment and more affordable homes in the suburbs. However, Baton Rouge is also plagued with natural disasters and high crime rates. This city’s population decline is steeper than the national average.

The causes for depopulation are similar in Toledo, OH. The city also suffers from the increase in an aging population. Meanwhile, Memphis, TN, is seeing population decline due to poverty and crime, with a tough job market not making living conditions easier. Meanwhile, in Milwaukee, WI, one of the contributing factors to depopulation is that residents have a preference for smaller families.

The downward trend continued in the 2000s, 2010s and in 2020. While certain neighborhoods in the city (Downtown and University Circle) recorded population growth, it is still not enough to bring the number of residents back up. The city can blame the fall of heavy industry, outmigration and significant suburbanization over the years.

The city suffers from various economic challenges, with job losses leading the charge. The high crime rates in Baltimore  is also a significant contributing factor. The final nail in the coffin is suburbanization. 

A tight job market can be seen as a driving factor for depopulation, as well as a higher crime rate compared to other cities. Many residents also fled to suburban areas to find better living conditions. Another possible contributing factor is demographic and economic shifts in the Midwestern region.

The city also overly relied on traditional economic sectors. Meanwhile, residents are lured by the growth in suburban areas, where economic conditions are slightly better and living costs are likely to be more affordable.

Detroit has lost around 61% of its population since the 1950s. The biggest reason for this decline is the decentralization of the automotive industry. Because of this, there were job losses, and the economy dwindled overall.

And this will lead to the stunting of economic growth. After all, consumer spending accounts for around 70% of the U.S. GDP.

A study already revealed that home values in shrinking cities have depreciated by an average of 2.7% annually (as opposed to 3.8% value appreciation in growing cities). Overall, there are many contributing factors, but fast-forwarding to the future shows a smaller population than currently in the U.S.