New Poll Finds Biden On Path to Overtake Trump In Critical Swing States

By: Alex Trent | Published: Mar 26, 2024

A newly released Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows that President Joe Biden is gaining ground against his Republican opponent Donald Trump ahead of the November elections.

The poll found that in six of seven swing states, Biden has narrowed Trump’s lead or overtaken him. These latest results for Biden are the strongest yet for this particular poll.

The Poll

The poll, published on Morning Consult, aimed to examine voter opinions on key issues ahead of the election, focusing on the state level. It was the sixth wave of this study, with previous versions going back to October 2023.

Joe Biden and Donald Trump are pictured. Both men have served as US presidents.

Source: Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia

Previously, Trump maintained a solid polling lead in these states on this poll, but it seems like voter opinions have started to shift.


Biden Gains Ground

This poll shows that Biden closed the gap with Trump in the battleground states of Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin compared to the fifth wave of the study conducted in February.

Joe Biden speaks on stage to a crowd of supporters.

Source: Michael Stokes/Wikimedia

Bidens gain in Wisconsin now puts him one point ahead of Trump in the state and he is now tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Trump Still Ahead

The poll was not all bad news for Trump. He saw a one-point gain in Georgia, solidifying his lead in the state to seven points. When taking the seven swing states on average, he still leads Biden 47% to 43% overall among voters.

A close-up portrait of President Donald Trump in 2016.

Source: Library of Congress/Unsplash

Still, these numbers should be concerning to the Trump administration if the former president’s early election gains continue to diminish.

Approval Soaring

While some may choose to discount the results of just one poll, there are other indicators that Biden’s popularity is gaining. A Decision DeskHQ/The Hill poll tracker found that Biden’s approval hit a high point on Sunday at 44%.

A 2021 portrait of President Biden wearing a suit and smiling in front of a US flag.

The White House/Wikimedia Commons

The poll tracker averaged the scores of over 1,150 polls and found that Biden’s recent approval among voters is the highest since October.

Trump’s Approval

A separate poll tracker by the Economist found that Joe Biden’s approval had overtaken Trump by one point. Biden had not overtaken Trump in approval in this way since last September.

Former President Donald Trump and Mike Johnson with other men, sitting down, in the White House in 2019.

Source: Office of Representative Mike Johnson/Wikimedia Commons

As president, Donald Trump reached an approval high of 49%, according to Gallup News. His approval rating averaged around 41% during his presidency.


Previous Struggles

These encouraging results for Biden are a significant trend reversal from previous data. In the past, Biden had been trailing Trump in these key swing states by an average of five points.

President Joe Biden stands at the podium, smiling as he addresses an audience. He is wearing a dark suit, white shirt, and blue tie. Behind him, Vice President Kamala Harris and Speaker of the House are slightly out of focus

Source: POTUS/X

A New York Times/Siena poll from November showed that in an election matchup, Biden would lose to Trump in five of the six swing states the poll looked at.


What are Swing States?

Swing states, sometimes called battleground states, are states that do not consistently vote for one political party or another. 

A map of the United States showing swing states in a grey color.

Source: A Red Cherry/Wikimedia

Many states in America will typically vote the same way for presidents every election cycle. However, the few that change are a priority for candidates because they have the ability to determine the election.


Swaying the Election

Every presidential election cycle the candidates turn up the pressure and battle it out for the voters that live in swing states. In the last cycle, Biden managed to win Pennsylvania which was the deciding state that secured his victory by putting him above the 270 electoral college threshold.

A close-up on voting stickers against a black background.

Source: visuals/Unsplash

Pennsylvania has a nickname as the Keystone State, which is fitting given it controls 19 electoral college votes, one of the highest counts among all states.


Fight for Pennsylvania

In recent American history, the fight for Pennsylvania has been a critical one for presidential candidates. 10 of the past 12 presidential election winners have carried Pennsylvania, which Biden has recognized.

A road sign welcoming a traveler to Pennsylvania.

Source: Pennsylvania/Wikimedia

In March, Biden chose Pennsylvania as the place for his first campaign speech after the State of the Union address. The candidates are currently tied in the polling in this state.


Nevada’s Importance

Another of the swing states, Nevada, is sometimes overlooked because it only offers six electoral votes. However, some are predicting the state could be a crucial bellwether state. Bellwether states can give some insight into the presidential winner and current voting trends.

View southwest across Reno, Nevada, showing desert and mountains across a valley.

Famartin/Wikimedia Commons

Trump previously enjoyed a six-point lead in Nevada, but this new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll showed that lead has narrowed down to only two points.


Vice President Pick

Some voters’ decisions might come down to their preference for the vice president, as both Biden and Trump are growing older. Six out of 10 voters reported that the vice presidential decision for each candidate will be more important this year.

Vice President Kamala Harris in her official Vice President portrait. She is smiling and there is a US flag in the background.

Source: Lawrence Jackson/Wikimedia Commons

In November, when the voting for the election takes place, Biden will be 81 years old and Trump will be 78 years old.