Latest Polling Data Forecasts Surprising Results for Presidential Race and Economy

By: Julia Mehalko | Published: Feb 28, 2024

Various new polls suggest that former President Donald Trump could potentially beat President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election. These polls show that Trump leads Biden in key states — states that could end up deciding the 2024 race.

This data also shows that Biden’s approval rate continues to drop, for different reasons. However, Trump’s ratings may also keep dropping, especially if he is convicted before November.

A General Election Toss Up

Many polls have been conducted that pit Biden and Trump against each other in a hypothetical rematch for the 2024 presidential election. Some of the previous polls have revealed that Biden has led Trump in the general election, 49% to Trump’s 45%.

Joe Biden in a collared shirt outside with other people and election signs.

Source: Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia

A new poll done by Morning Consult shows a different scenario. According to this study of 6,321 registered voters, Trump leads at 45%, while Biden has only 41%.

New Michigan Polls

Michigan, a battleground state that could change the 2024 election depending on who wins it, is often the site of many political polls leading up to presidential elections. A new survey shows that Trump now leads Biden at 45% to Biden’s 41% in the key state.

Donald Trump in a suit and tie points his finger amid a blue background

Source: Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons

However, some data does suggest that Biden has increased in support in Michigan among independent voters. Trump does still lead among this sect of voters, though, at 38%.

Georgia Will Remain a Battleground State

The 2020 presidential election became controversial after Biden won by only a slim majority. Trump’s conduct over these election results subsequently led to Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis opening an investigation into Trump and his associates for alleged election interference.

Joe Biden in front of a presidential podium with a microphone, a Bidenomics poster in the background, in 2023.

Source: Public Domain/Wikimedia Commons

Georgia will likely remain a key — and contentious — battleground state in the 2024 election. A new Emerson College/The Hill poll reveals that Trump leads by 48% to Biden’s 42%.

Trump Keeps North Carolina Lead

In the 2020 presidential election, Trump won North Carolina narrowly by receiving 49.93% of the vote to the 48.59% that Biden got. This resulted in Trump getting the state’s 15 electoral college votes.

Donald Trump in a navy suit and red tie looking off into the distance.

Source: Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons

New polling suggests that Trump may win the state again in a potential 2024 race against Biden. So far, this polling shows that Trump leads by 47% to Biden’s 44%.

Pennsylvania Remains a Close Race

Pennsylvania, another key battleground state on the road to the White House, will likely remain incredibly close. In the 2020 race, Biden won the state.

Joe Biden in blue walks out beside a crowd holding Union Strong papers.

Source: Public Domain/Wikimedia Commons

However, new polls hint that this may not happen for a second time around. Current polls show that Trump leads Biden, 45% to 43%. This polling will likely remain close up until the actual election.


Biden and Trump’s Favorability

New polls have also shown how voters view both the current president and the former president. According to an Echelon Insights poll, Trump had a 44% favorability rating and a 55% unfavorability rating.

A close-up of Joe Biden wearing a suit with a blue background.

Source: Public Domain/Wikimedia Commons

The same poll also revealed how registered voters viewed Biden, who had a 39% favorability rating and a 58% unfavorability. Therefore, these voters have a higher view of Trump than Biden.


Poll Shows Voters Don’t Want a Biden-Trump Rematch

Recent polls have also shown the lackluster support many Americans have for the idea that they’ll have to vote between Biden and Trump — again. Many voters want different candidates to choose from.

Donald Trump in front of a microphone, in a suit with a red tie, against a blue background, in 2023.

Source: Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons

“I hate to think that we’re constantly navigating the lesser of two evils,” voter Kimberly Sofge told Reuters. “I honestly feel that we can do better.”


Concerns Over Biden’s Age Persist

There are countless reasons why Biden’s favorability may have fallen among voters over the past few months. The concern over Biden’s age remains a huge factor for many, as they believe he’s too old to be president again.

Joe Biden stands in front of a podium and microphone to speak, with chandeliers and a yellow curtain behind him.

Source: Public Domain/Wikimedia Commons

At 81, Biden is currently the oldest sitting president in history. This has led a majority of Americans to believe he is too old to be elected as president again, as he would be 86 at the end of his second term, were he to win the 2024 election.


Trump’s Age and Indictments Are Issues for Voters

While many people tend to focus on Biden’s age, a lot of Americans are also concerned about Trump’s age, as he’s 77. However, the biggest issue Trump faces in winning over registered voters has to do with his indictments.

Donald Trump being sworn in as the president of the United States in 2016 with his family beside him.

Source: Public Domain/Wikimedia Commons

According to some polls, some conservative and independent voters will not vote for Trump if he is charged with a crime before November. As a result, people are less likely to vote for the former president if he is a convicted felon.


Biden Loses Some Support in Democratic Party

Many Democrats have also refused to vote for Biden because of his response to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. Some liberal voters have denounced Biden for not publicly calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, as the president has instead continued to back Israel.

President Joe Biden in the Situation Room with Lloyd Austin and others in 2024.

Source: Public Domain/Wikimedia Commons

Though Biden has recently made statements criticizing Israel’s use of force against civilians in Gaza and the West Bank, this hasn’t been enough for many. If Democrats choose to sit the vote out in November, this could hurt Biden’s reelection chances — especially if he loses Michigan because of this.


Polls May Continue to Change

Both Biden and Trump have various factors that could work against them in November. As a result, some analysts aren’t surprised that the polls seem to shift with each new week.

Joe Biden shaking the hand of a person, with other people around him, in 2024.

Source: Public Domain/Wikimedia Commons

With this in mind, more polls may come out agreeing with these recent studies, showing that Trump may defeat Biden in key battleground states — and therefore win the election. However, other polls may shift in Biden’s favor, especially as we move closer to the general election in November.