Joe Biden Inches Ahead of Trump In New Poll After Trailing Him for Months

By: Alex Trent | Published: Apr 03, 2024

The Morning Consult 2024 election tracker has put Democrat Joe Biden in a two-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in the race for president for the first time in a seven-point swing from earlier results. This is a notable pickup for Biden who had been trailing Trump in this poll by a moderate margin in the past.

Election analysts still think the race between the two in November is still too close to call. However, some speculate that this and other poll results might be indicative of Biden starting to gain ground on Trump, who previously enjoyed a comfortable early polling lead ahead of the election.

Morning Consult Survey

The survey from Morning Consult shows that Biden is now the leading in terms of vote shares. Biden has a vote share of 44 percent, which is two points higher than Trump at 42 percent.

A close-up image capturing former President Barack Obama on the left, partially in view and smiling, with President Joe Biden on the right

Source: Wikimedia Commons

Another notable finding from the survey is that the two candidates are tied among independents, which Trump has consistently led in the past.

Survey Method

This survey asked 6,018 registered voters questions about who they were voting for, the favorability of politicians, how much they trust Congress, and the top issues on their minds ahead of the election.

A black and white photo of a street in front of the U.S. Capitol building.

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The survey was conducted between March 29 and March 31 and has a one-percentage-point margin of error.

Just Two Percent?

While two points in a single poll months ahead of the election may seem inconsequential to some, it is another data point that could spell trouble for Trump in combination with results from previous polls.

Trump is captured in a profile view while speaking at a podium with the presidential seal. He is wearing a dark suit, white shirt, and red tie, and is gesturing with his right hand extended

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Another recent poll that looked at the results in swing states found that Biden was closing the gap on Trump in these critical areas as well. Swing states are important bellwethers for political analysts to determine what direction the wind is blowing for voter attitudes and opinions.

Biden is Now More Popular

Biden has also gained a favorability lead over Trump in the Morning Consult survey. This is the first time that Biden has ranked more popular than Trump among general voters since January.

Joe Biden signs an executive order at a desk.

Source: Adam Shultz/Wikimedia

Previous election polling showed a recent dip in Biden’s favorability, which it seems is on a slow road to recovery among Democrat and general voters.

Too Close to Call

While Biden appears to be closing the gap in swing states and overtaking Trump in popularity, election analysts are still saying the race is too close to call. In comments to Newsweek, associate professor of public policy at City University of New York, Heath Brown, said the race was “very close.”

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“These latest polls confirm that this campaign is very close and will likely remain that way for the foreseeable future,” Brown said.


Polls Will Get Better Closer to Election

Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University thinks that the polls we have at the present time can only give insight into general trends about the election because the race is so close.

A sign that tells people to have a happy time voting.

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“The polls will not start providing possibly a bit better information until starting in June as more people start paying attention to the election, and then much more so after both party’s conventions; by September they can start becoming more indicative,” Shapiro said.


Biden Approval Rating Rising

President Joe Biden’s approval rating has been slowly recovering. Reuters reported in late March that Biden had previously hit a 37% approval rating, which was the lowest in his presidency.

Joe Biden in a suit smiling.

Source: Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons

An online Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted after Biden’s State of the Union address found that two-fifths of Americans now approved of Biden’s performance.


Majority of Americans Still Disapprove of the President

The Reuters/Ipsos poll in late March still found that 56% of those surveyed disapproved of the president’s job performance.

A man holds his forehead in disappointment.

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The poll found that other top issues among voters were immigration and the economy. As an incumbent president, Biden has a harder time making a good economic case amid recent highs of inflation. On immigration, Biden also appears to be losing ground in results from recent polls.


Threat to Democracy

The recovery in favorability by Americans may be attributed to concerns over political extremism and threats to democracy, which saw a slight uptick in voting concerns.

A protestor holds up a sign demanding democracy.

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The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 23% of respondents said threats to democracy were their top concern, which was up from 21% in the previous month.


Biden on Democracy

In his campaign so far, Biden has been aggressive in framing a potential second Trump presidency as a huge threat to the security of American democracy and democratic elections.

Joe Biden sitting in a chair speaking into a microphone.

Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons

In a campaign event in January Biden said that Trump is “willing to sacrifice our democracy,” and has attempted to raise the stakes of the election to drive turnout from his base.


Trump Counterattack

Trump, in response to Biden’s accusations, has also returned fire with the same line of attack. Trump has called Biden a “threat to democracy” also.

Donald Trump is captured in mid-speech, pointing directly at the camera with his right hand

Source: Wikimedia Commons

“This country is finished if we do not win this election. I heard someone say that if we do not win, this may be the last election our country ever has. That is where we are going. Joe Biden is a threat to democracy,” Trump said at a campaign rally in Green Bay.