Last week, both VP Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump held rallies at the same Georgia State University venue in downtown Atlanta only a few days apart.
The event that Harris hosted on Tuesday was overflowing with jubilant Democrats who were overjoyed by her new position as the face of the party and its likely candidate for president in 2024.
Georgia Turns Purple
Meanwhile, Trump’s Saturday rally, which attracted supporters of the MAGA, attempted to halt Harris’ rise in a race that the former president thought would pit him against the more politically vulnerable President Joe Biden less than a month ago.
The new landscape comes at a crucial time for both campaigns in Georgia, a state that was once a Republican stronghold but has since turned purple as a result of supporting Biden in 2020 and electing Democrats to the Senate in both 2021 and 2022.
Surge of Energy
While numerous conservatives were starting to see Georgia for the taking because of Biden’s sagging numbers, Harris has provided liberals with a surge of energy in the state. Furthermore, neither one of the sides can underestimate this Southern battleground state.
Biden in 2020 cleared virtually every swing state, helped by his electoral benefit with young citizens and minorities.
Slim Margins
In Georgia, Biden won the state by less than one percentage point that year thanks to his strong support among these groups, particularly Black voters.
Biden did however struggle in recent times to shore up that base. In the majority of Georgia polls, he was frequently in the low to middle 40s.
Reversing Trends
Trump was winning over an unusually high number of Black voters for a GOP presidential candidate, and a significant portion of young voters were voting for third-party candidates like independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., but Harris has reversed that trend, giving her momentum in Georgia that Biden lacked this year.
In the Peach State, a recent Emerson College/The Hill poll showed that Trump had a two-point lead over Harris (48% to 46%). Additionally, Harris and Trump shared equal support among registered voters, according to the most recent Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll conducted in Georgia.
Preparing for a Rematch
Trump’s allies had been preparing for a rematch with Biden for a long time, using a strategy centered on sweeping GOP voters and winning over independents and undecided voters on the economy.
It might have worked especially well in the suburbs of Atlanta, particularly in the outer suburbs, where Republicans still hold the majority in non-federal statewide races.
Plans in Disorder
In any case, Harris’ selection has tossed those plans into disorder. Harris has a chance to reintroduce herself to an electorate that didn’t want a rematch in 2020, despite the fact that she is an important part of the Biden administration.
Her focus on upholding the Constitution and defending reproductive rights places her squarely in the ideological camp of many suburban residents.
Poor Atlanta Performance
Trump overloaded rural conservatives the nation over in 2016, and in 2018 and 2020 his kind of Republicanism kept on pushing numerous suburbs — such as the Atlanta region — further from their old GOP leanings.
During the GOP presidential primary in March, Trump did poorly in many inner suburban Atlanta neighborhoods. Even after Nikki Haley left the race, she still received thousands of votes.
2020 Election
Harris is likely to gain if Trump holds on to 2020 rather than uniting Georgia Republicans.
During Trump’s convention on Saturday, he indeed attacked Conservative Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, inclining toward the bitterness of the 2020 political decision that caused the GOP to tear apart.
No Evidence
Trump has argued for a long time, without providing any evidence, that he was the real winner in Georgia that year.
However, neither Kemp nor Raffensperger would assist Trump in overturning the state’s presidential results, and the majority of Republicans have attempted to move beyond the grievances of the former president regarding the matter.
Trump Comments
“He’s a bad guy, he’s a disloyal guy, and he’s a very average governor,” Trump told rally participants of Kemp on Saturday.
“In my opinion, they want us to lose,” the former president claimed of Kemp and Raffensperger.
Divided Republican Party
On X, the governor told the former president to “leave my family out of it” after Trump mentioned Kemp’s wife Marty in a Truth Social post and stated that he did not want the Georgia first lady’s endorsement.
In the GOP primaries in 2022, Trump attempted to eliminate Kemp and Raffensperger but was unsuccessful due to their defeat of MAGA-aligned challengers.
This year, as the Harris campaign devotes time and resources to Georgia, a divided Republican Party heading into November would seriously jeopardize the party’s chances of winning the state.
