Fox News Poll Shows Biden Advancing a Two-Point Lead Over Trump for First Time Since October

By: Alex Trent | Published: Jun 20, 2024

A new Fox News poll released in the wake of former President Donald Trump’s historic felony convictions has given President Biden a two-point lead over him: 50% to 48%.

These latest results are a three-point jump for Biden in this poll over last month’s figures and represent the first time Biden has reached 50 percent support in this poll for the current election contest.

Three Point Shift

The Fox News poll released Wednesday recorded a three-point swing in favor of Biden among survey participants, placing him in the lead over Trump for the first time in a Fox News poll since October of last year.

Joe Biden in a blue suit in front of the American flag.

Source: Public Domain/Wikimedia Commons

This poll records monthly results and asks “If the election were today, how would you vote if the candidates were: Joe Biden and Donald Trump.”


Poll Methodology

Fox News was responsible for conducting and publishing the poll, which surveyed nationally registered voters with a plus or minus three percentage points margin of error.

Hunter Biden and his lawyer in front of microphones and people.

Source: Public Domain/Wikimedia Commons

The poll respondents were surveyed between June 14 and June 17. This date range is after the reading of the Trump felony trial verdict, the Hunter Biden gun conviction, Biden’s movements on immigration, and the release of US jobs numbers.

Biden Improving

Daron Shaw, the Republican pollster who conducted the survey, noted that the results show that Biden’s approval is improving with certain groups while losing support from others.

Joe Biden speaks into a microphone whiles sitting in a chair.

Source: Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia

“The underlying demographic tendencies that have defined the race remain in place,” said Shaw. “Biden has improved slightly with women and seniors, which keeps him afloat despite significant reductions from 2020 in support from younger voters and African Americans.”

More Positive Economic Outlook

Another notable finding from the poll was an increase in optimism about the economy. Biden scored record-high approval on the economy’s performance, an issue he has been consistently hounded on.

A close-up of a person holding out a credit card to a salesperson.

Source: Towfiqu barbhuiya/Pexels

In the poll, one-third of voters said the economy is in “excellent or good shape” a record high for the Biden presidency. The previous high in the poll was last month at 30%.

Many Still Disappointed

While this number is the highest Biden has seen, most poll respondents still hold negative views of the current economic condition of the United States.

A man sits on a chair with its face in his hand.

Source: Nik Shuliahin/Unsplash

A 68% majority of the survey’s respondents said the economy was “not so good or poor.”


Personal Finances

Respondents in the survey reported a positive 5% increase in the outlook of their personal finances compared to the results from last summer.

A sad piggy pank grieving the loss of several coins.

Source: Andre Taissin/Unsplash

In these new survey results, 59% of respondents said they are either “getting ahead” or “holding steady” on their personal finances while 41% said they felt they were “falling behind.”


Biden’s Approval

On the question of overall approval, Biden’s number remained unchanged from the previous month.

Joe Biden wearing a suit speaking in front of a podium into a microphone.

Source: Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons

Fox News poll respondents overall disapprove of Biden. In the survey, 55% of people disapproved of Biden while only 45% approved of the job he has done while in office.


On the Issues

Biden scored the highest among survey respondents when it came to his handling of the economy, which received 41% approval.

Biden walks alongside border patrol agents dressed in uniform.

Source: The White House/Wikimedia

His handling of inflation was second at 37% and his handling of immigration was third at 35%. 34% of respondents said they like how things are going in the country, which is up two points from last year.


Poll Shift

Some are speculating that these poll results from a traditionally conservative-leaning outlet like Fox News show a break in the ranks among Republicans in their support for Trump after his felony convictions.

Donald Trump smiling with a blue background.

Source: Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons

“Fox News poll shows Biden leading Trump for first time since October. Most major polls already showed major shift toward Biden — led by independents and conservatives moving away from Trump after his conviction on 34 felonies. America is finally getting tired of Trump,” said X user Tristan Snell.


Just a Snapshot

Some experts are warning that this poll, like many others, is just a snapshot in time and that poll shifts due to recent events may not pan out into a trend long-term.

Donald Trump wearing a suit pointing amid a blue background.

Source: Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons

“My guess is right now, this is gonna be a blip,” Pollster Lee Carter said. “I don’t think this is something that’s long term. I think we saw these kinds of shifts in polls in 2016, but I think it’s important to note that Donald Trump was never ever, ever…ahead in the polls in 2016 or 2020.”


Trump’s Record

Carter also emphasized that Trump has historically overperformed poll results, something that he predicts the former President is capable of doing again.

A close-up on a red MAGA hat seen on a table outside.

Source: Natilyn Photography/Unsplash

“He consistently outperformed the polls by between three and eight points…even though he didn’t win in 2020, he still overperformed what the polls said he was gonna do and I think we’re still gonna see that same kind of phenomenon this year,” said Carter.