Experts Worry Trump and the GOP Won’t Win with Current Voting Strategy

By: Lauren | Published: Mar 14, 2024

The 2024 presidential election is well underway, and while no one knows who will be the next leader of the country, experts agree that if the GOP continues with its current strategy, it’s likely it won’t be Trump in the Oval Office.

In 2020, the GOP focused its energy on day-of voting, and just last week, they did the same for the special election in New York. Fellow Republicans are worried that if they don’t change tactics, it will lead to another four years of President Biden.

Understanding the Various Ways to Vote

Before discussing the current conversation regarding the Republican party’s focus on day-off voting, it’s crucial to understand the various options that Americans have to cast their votes.

Sign that reads “Vote Here” with an American flag in front of a voting center

Source: Pixabay

Essentially, there are three ways to vote for the next president: First, request an absentee ballot and send in your vote early via mail. Second, find an early voting center and cast your vote whenever they are open over the next few months. Or third, wait and vote on November 5, 2024 in person.


Early and Absentee Voting Are Becoming Far More Popular

According to the Pew Research Center, 46% of all votes collected during the 2020 presidential election were cast via absentee ballots.

“Official Election Mail” absentee ballot

Source: iStock

Of course, at that time, the COVID-19 pandemic was in full force, and many Americans simply decided it was safer to send in their ballots as opposed to wait in a crowded school gymnasium to vote.

It Seems American May Prefer to Vote Ahead of Time

But even after the lockdown was over, in the 2022 midterms, 47.1% of voters still sent in their ballot before the day-of election.

People wait in line in a gymnasium to cast their votes for an election

Source: iStock

Though, it’s interesting to note that registered democrats are far more likely than republicans are to get their votes in early, and there is a specific reason why.

Trump Has Always Supported Day-Of Voting

Throughout his now-three campaigns, Donald Trump has always been an advocate for day-of voting as opposed to early or absentee voting.

Donald Trump looks upset while sitting down

Source: Shutterstock

The former president posted on Twitter, now X, “GET RID OF BALLOT HARVESTING, IT IS RAMPANT WITH FRAUD,” and by “ballot harvesting,” he means mail-in ballots.

Trump’s Distrust in the System Could Be Bad News for the Republican Party

Now, here is where things get interesting: If Trump supporters don’t trust the mail-in ballot system because their president told them not to, it could mean a loss in November for the Republican party.

Donald Trump speaks at an event for the Republican National Committee (RNC)

Source: Adobe Stock

And that’s because, realistically, anything can happen on November 5, 2024. Any votes that aren’t in by the end of the day won’t count.


The Special Election That Was Almost Lost

A perfect example of this occurred on February 13, 2024, when New York’s 3rd congressional district special election was held.

George Santos, former Congressman/Tom Suozzi, recently elected Rep. Congressman

Source: Wikipedia/Wikipedia

That day, the Republican party was desperate for another Republican to fill the seat of George Santos who was removed from office that year. However, a snow storm hit New York and almost stopped thousands from getting to the poles.


The RNC Got to Work

To ensure their voters could get to the polls, the Republican National Committee paid for private snow plows to clear the roads.

Snow plows move through snowy streets

Source: Freepik

The Democratic party didn’t follow suit, and Republican Tom Suozzi won the seat. While it’s impossible to say whether the snow plows actually secured Suozzi’s place in Congress, it did highlight the RNC’s fear of low day-of turnout.


Just a Snowstorm Away From Losing the Election

So, many Republicans are now worried that if Democrat voters have all sent in their votes ahead of time and Republicans are waiting until November 5th, 2024, any kind of bad weather, traffic, or other upset could lose them the race.

American flag background with buttons for Trump and Biden for president of the United States

Source: Adobe Stock

Republican strategist Scott Jennings told CNN, “You’re always just one snowstorm away from some kind of a turnout problem. The Democrats are gonna win this … and a big part of it is the Republican Party remains resistant to getting votes in the bank.”


The RNC Is Fighting to Get Republican Votes to “Bank Your Vote”

Even without Trump’s support, the RNC is desperately trying to get Republican voters to cast their ballots early, either in person or via an absentee ballot.

Trump supporters hold signs and flags at a rally

Source: iStock

Ronna McDaniel, the RNC chairwoman announced the “Bank Your Vote” campaign, which will ”encourage, educate, and activate Republican voters on when, where, and how to lock in their votes as early as possible, through in-person early voting, absentee voting, and ballot harvesting where legal.”


Securing the Vote

The absentee and early votes are only being counted in some states, while others wait until election day to start tallying.

US President Joe Biden leaves an event

Source: Shutterstock

But it doesn’t matter when they’re counted, as they are already in the hands of state officials. Therefore, Biden supporters, who have already or plan to send in their votes before November 5, will ensure their vote is counted, no matter what happens on the day.


Who Will Win the 2024 Presidential Election?

Experts are already speculating which of the two former presidents will win the election come November. Some say it’s destined to be Biden, while others argue it will absolutely be Trump.

Illustration of the donkey and elephant representing the Democratic and Republican party silhouetted in front of an American flag

Source: Shutterstock

The truth is there is no way to know for sure. However, it seems that if there is any kind of disruption on the day of the election, without early voting, Trump will struggle to win.