As the United States continues to go through a period of political partisanship that has led to severe polarization, many experts have begun to open up about what a potential second civil war would look like in America.
These historians and officials have warned that another civil war could ruin the country. However, it likely wouldn’t be similar to the first civil war that America saw in the 1860s.
People Think That We’ll See Another Civil War
Think that the United States will never see anything close to a civil war? While many Americans would have brushed off such an allegation just a few years ago, studies have shown that U.S. citizens are becoming increasingly worried that a civil war will indeed happen.
British-based think tank Chatham House even revealed that 40% of Democrats think that the U.S. will see a civil war in the next 10 years. Meanwhile, half of Republicans believe this could happen.
Republican Lawmakers Are Increasingly Suggesting a Civil War
Some elected officials have even begun to openly suggest that a civil war — or something akin to it — should occur as the country continues to be incredibly divided.
Most notably, Republican House Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene has called for what she deems to be a “national divorce” between blue states and red states.
The South vs the North?
If another civil war indeed breaks out in the United States in the future, some analysts have claimed that it may be similar to what was seen in the 1860s Civil War.
For example, many of the southern states that used to be the Confederacy continue to vote similarly on the same policies, even today.
A Different Kind of Civil War
While seeing southern states secede from the northern states yet again could be one possibility, analysts have stated that this isn’t the only way a civil war could appear in America in the near future.
Some have even claimed that California could secede from the U.S. For decades, this idea has been popular among fringe groups. Some have even desired to see California, alongside the rest of the Pacific Coast, leave the country.
A Growing “Calexit” Trend
This Calexit trend has only grown in recent years as many liberal Californians have become angry at seeing their voice and vote diminished in the country.
For example, 61% of Californians voted to elect Hillary Clinton as president in 2016 — an election Donald Trump won. This made many Californians feel that their vote doesn’t count, which has fueled thoughts of secession.
California’s Great Economy
California’s huge economy could actually help it thrive if it ever seceded. If the state became independent all by itself, then it would immediately become the fifth economy in the world.
This would result in California having a bigger economy than the United Kingdom. Plus, California remains a huge state in the U.S. If it were to become its own independent nation, it would still be a large country and would even be bigger than countries such as Italy.
Some Analysts Don’t Think a Civil War Will Happen
Though the country is dealing with severe political polarization at the moment — and though many have stated they’ve never seen the U.S. more divided — some analysts don’t actually think we’ll see any type of civil war happen anytime soon.
Even with the anger and distrust the country has right now, these historians and analysts have explained that it’s nowhere near what was seen before the Civil War happened.
The Rise of Purple States
These experts have also pointed out that the “national divorce” between red states and blue states that Greene wants would never be able to happen.
This is because even very red states, and very blue states, have centers of the opposite party thriving in specific areas. This has allowed more purple states to rise up in the past few years.
Every State Has Conservatives and Democrats
For example, a large, red state such as Texas is often touted as being incredibly conservative. While this is true, many areas of the state are increasingly liberal. Austin is one such city that is said to be a left-leaning place in Texas.
On the opposite end of the political spectrum, we have California. While much of California is liberal, there are still centrist or conservative circles found throughout the state.
Political Violence Could Rise
However, while these analysts don’t think a full-scale civil war could happen anytime soon, that doesn’t mean they’re not worried about a potential rise in political violence. Nina Silber, a Boston University professor, further explained this worry.
“I can imagine a future in which we deal with even more incidents of, or plans for, political violence — and that’s definitely a disturbing development,” Silber stated.
A Change in War
Experts have also warned that if the country were indeed to see a civil war in the future, it wouldn’t be anything like what was seen in the 1860s.
Now, civil wars are fought by guerrilla units fighting to see who comes out on top, as is seen in countries like Sudan and Syria. This has led analysts to worry that militia groups, such as the Oathkeepers, may work to create a nationwide war themselves.
