Analysts Predict Big Mac Price Could Increase to $15 Due to Minimum Wage Hikes

By: Georgia | Published: Jan 09, 2024

As minimum wage increases across several states in the U.S., economic analysts are predicting a significant rise in fast-food prices. This shift, driven by wage policy changes, could see staples like the McDonald’s Big Mac soar to $15 in affected states.

Brandon Arnold, executive vice president of think tank the National Taxpayers Union, spoke on Fox News, highlighting the potential consequences of these wage hikes, particularly pointing to California’s decision to mandate a $20 per hour minimum wage for fast-food restaurant employees.

The Balancing Act of Wage Increases and Consumer Prices

Brandon Arnold emphasizes the challenging position fast-food companies find themselves in due to minimum wage increases. He explains that these companies have limited options.

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Arnold said on Fox News, “Companies are either gonna have to raise prices, start to reduce those labor costs, or a combination of both.” This illustrates the complexities businesses face in adapting to higher labor costs.

The Cost of a Big Mac Across the U.S.

The implications of wage increases are already visible in parts of the U.S. A McDonald’s location in Connecticut faced criticism for charging $18 for a Big Mac combo meal.

An individual's arm reaching for a sauce container next to a Big Mac box and a carton of fries on a wooden dining table

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The contrast is stark nationwide, with the most expensive Big Mac found in Massachusetts at $7.09, while the cheapest is offered in North Carolina and Wyoming at $4.19. The average price of a Big Mac in the U.S. is currently $5.17, as reported by the financial data site Zippia.

California's Minimum Wage Hike and Its Effect on Fast Food Chains

California is set to implement a $20-per-hour minimum wage for fast-food workers in April.

Fast food restaurant employees wearing uniforms and face masks are working behind the service counter, with digital menu displays and order numbers visible in the foreground

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The New York Post reports that in response, major fast-food chains like McDonald’s and Chipotle have announced plans to increase their menu prices at locations in the state.

Potential Job Cuts as a Response to Rising Labor Costs

The rise in labor costs might lead to job cuts in the fast-food industry, according to Arnold.

View through a window into a McDonald's restaurant at night, showing customers seated at tables

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He told Fox News, “As [employers] start to see these labor costs increase, they may not lay people off immediately, but when times get tough, they’re gonna have to make changes.”

Pizza Hut's Layoff Announcement in California

Reflecting these concerns, Pizza Hut recently announced its decision to lay off more than 1,200 delivery drivers in California, ahead of the new state law.

Close-up of a barbecue chicken pizza with pineapple chunks, red onions, and melted cheese, garnished with fresh cilantro

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Speaking on Fox News, Arnold recounted that he predicts a reduction in the number of jobs in the fast-food industry, estimating a “10, 12, 15% reduction in the number of jobs available,” which was first reported by Mediaite.

Fast Food Workers' Preferences: Employment Over Higher Wages

In a stark reflection of the dilemma faced by many in the fast-food industry, Arnold notes, “Fast food workers would much rather be working for $8, $9, $10 an hour than to be on the unemployment line.”

Restaurant kitchen staff in red uniforms preparing burgers in an assembly line process. One worker is focused on adding condiments to the burgers

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This comment, made during his conversation with Fox News, highlights the complex trade-offs between higher wages and job security in the sector.

McDonald's USA's Perspective on California's Wage Increase

Joe Erlinger, president of McDonald’s USA, expressed concern about California’s minimum wage increase. In an open letter, he wrote, “California keeps looking for ways to raise prices, drive away more businesses, and destroy growth through bad policy and bad politics.”

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This statement reflects the viewpoint of a major player in the industry regarding the potential impact of wage hikes on small-business operations.

Minimum Wage Increases Across the United States

The trend of rising minimum wages is not limited to California. Lawmakers in 25 states and Washington, D.C., have enacted legislation to raise the minimum wage.

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This nationwide shift affects a significant portion of the labor market and industries, including the fast-food sector, and brings into focus the broader implications of wage policy changes.

Upcoming Minimum Wage Hikes in Other States

Further changes are on the horizon, with wage increases scheduled in Nevada and certain parts of Oregon on July 1.

The Fremont East District sign in Las Vegas is captured at dusk, with a vibrant sunset sky in the background. Tall palm trees line the street, and distinctive street lights and signage are visible

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Additionally, Florida will see its minimum wage rise on Sept. 30.

New York's Incremental Wage Increase

In New York, the minimum wage saw a recent increase. The New York Post details these changes.

A night scene showing the vibrant illuminated signage of Smashburger and Little Italy Pizza restaurants side by side on a busy street. Pedestrians are walking by and bikes are parked in front of the establishments

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New York City, Long Island, and Westchester County experienced a rise from $15 to $16 per hour, while the rest of New York State saw an increase to $15, up from $14.20.

The Future Landscape of Fast Food Amid Wage Changes

As minimum wages rise across various states, the fast-food industry faces a period of adjustment and change.

A close-up image of a fast food worker's hands wearing blue gloves, assembling tacos with fresh ingredients on a stainless steel kitchen counter. The worker is carefully placing lettuce and herbs into taco shells

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This includes potential increases in consumer prices, shifts in employment practices, and adaptations by businesses to new economic realities.