Earlier this year, weather forecasters anticipated that the 2024 hurricane season would be incredibly active.
However, the Atlantic Ocean has only seen a few hurricanes so far, which has stunned weather experts. According to one forecaster, “The tropics are broken.”
An Eerily Calm Atlantic Ocean
2024’s hurricane season has only seen five named storms that have been created in the Atlantic basin. Three of these storms were hurricanes: Beryl, Debby, and Ernesto.
This eerily calm Atlantic Ocean has shocked many weather experts, as they forecasted that more storms and hurricanes would form this year.
The Busiest Time of Hurricane Season
In the next few weeks, the busiest — and most active — period of the hurricane season will arrive. Experts have noted that anything is possible, especially as the Atlantic Ocean has been so quiet recently.
However, that doesn’t mean that hurricanes or brutal storms will appear overnight.
No Storms Brewing in the Atlantic
Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach recently explained that experts haven’t even named a storm in the last few days — and that there aren’t any new storms brewing.
He said, “We haven’t had a named storm since Ernesto dissipated on Aug. 20, and the National Hurricane Center currently forecasts no additional storm formations for the next seven days.”
A Similarity to 1997
The last time we experienced this lack of named storms occurred back in 1997.
During this hurricane season, the Atlantic didn’t see a named storm from August 21 to September 2. Therefore, we may experience a similar situation this year.
A Quiet Atlantic Ocean
The fact that the Atlantic Ocean remains rather quiet has continued to surprise meteorologists.
Klotzback said, “It is quiet out there. I certainly wasn’t expecting this when we put out our most recent seasonal forecast!”
The Tropics Are Broken
Meteorologist Ryan Maue has explained why the Atlantic Ocean hasn’t seen the mass amount of hurricanes many were expecting after the active season was forecasted.
On X, formerly known as Twitter, Maue posted, “The Atlantic tropics are broken – for now.”
Why the Atlantic Has Been So Quiet
According to Maue, there have been many strong waves seen in the Atlantic. However, ocean temperatures haven’t been warm enough to allow any storms or hurricanes to form.
“We’ve been watching many strong waves … only one problem: ocean temperatures at this latitude are way too cool to sustain a rain shower. The whole thing goes poof,” he wrote.
Warm Water in the Atlantic
To truly form into hurricanes or strong storms, the Atlantic needs to be filled with warm water. One of the reasons why experts forecasted a very strong hurricane season this year is because global temperatures continue to rise, thanks to climate change.
However, Atlantic waters haven’t been as warm as initially expected — yet.
Storms Could Soon Form
Though no storms have been anticipated to form in the next week, things could soon change in the near future as the busiest part of the hurricane season begins.
Some meteorological patterns are already favoring some storm formations in the Atlantic. However, there are other patterns that have prevented these storms or hurricanes from forming. This could soon change, and more hurricanes may be seen in the coming weeks.
Will the Season End With No Major Hurricanes?
Some may be inclined to think that this calm Atlantic Ocean may help restrain hurricanes from forming. However, Klotzbach says the season isn’t over yet.
“I think it’s too early to bail on the season just yet,” he said, adding that new models “are a whole lot more robust than they were one week ago at this time.”
Analyzing the Pacific Ocean
Interestingly, while the Atlantic Ocean has been calm, the Pacific basins have seen nine named storms this year, with three of them being hurricanes.
Some analysts believe that if the Atlantic springs to life and starts to form more storms and hurricanes, the Pacific may become calmer in the coming weeks.
